March 23, 2026
The RBA has lifted the cash rate to 4.1% and the property headlines are, predictably, getting louder. On this episode of the Positive Property Show, hosts George Markoski and Christina Markoski give Australian property investors a clear-eyed picture of what is happening in Australia in the midst of the global oil crisis and what to do about it.
The RBA has just implemented a back-to-back hike. The Middle East conflict has choked the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off roughly 20% of global oil supply. Fuel prices have surged as a result, with petrol jumping from $70 to over $104 per barrel in a very short window. That spike is inflationary, and the RBA responded by raising rates.
George’s argument is blunt: raising rates cannot fix a supply problem. When inflation is driven by a shortage of fuel, the solution is more supply, not reduced demand. People still need to eat, travel, and heat their homes regardless of what the cash rate says. Markets are now pricing in a cash rate of 4.6% by December 2026. If that trajectory holds, it adds real and sustained pressure to household budgets with limited impact on the underlying cause of inflation.
George draws a direct comparison to the GFC, when the RBA hiked aggressively and then slashed rates fast the moment recession hit. His read: if the Middle East conflict drags on and tips the global economy into recession, the RBA will cut hard and fast again. For prepared property investors, that is not a threat. It is an opportunity.
The Prime Minister’s reported 36-day figure includes fuel sitting in vessels that can legally be diverted to whoever pays more. That gap between the headline figure and the actual on-ground reality is why George argues the RBA’s rate hikes are a blunt instrument aimed at the wrong problem entirely. Cutting demand does nothing when the supply chain itself is broken.
In light of the March 17 rate hike, mortgages are expected to be heavily impacted. On a $740,000 loan at 4.1%, monthly repayments sit at around $4,413. If the rate climbs to 4.6% as futures markets suggest, that rises to roughly $4,652, an additional $473 per month on the average mortgage compared to where rates sat before this hiking cycle began. That is $5,676 a year disappearing from household cashflow.
Despite this pressure, demand at the entry level of the market is not collapsing. George notes that 31,500 first home buyers purchased property in Q4 2025, the highest figure in three years. That level of activity is keeping a firm floor under entry-level prices, much like it did through the GFC. The bottom end of the market is being supported from below while the top end faces the most exposure to any further rate movement.
The Positive Property strategy remains reliable wherever the rates land: buy in the right suburbs using demand fundamentals. Get the right structure in place from day one. Use interest-only loans, depreciation schedules, and an ITWV to manage cashflow. Hold long term and let compounding work.
Rate cycles come and go. Australia’s structural housing shortage has not changed. The investors who built wealth through the GFC and through COVID were not the ones waiting for the perfect moment. They were already in the market, in the right properties, with the right structure, letting time do the heavy lifting.
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