May 9, 2026
Many investors are now fearing a recession in Australia. With the current negative GDP trajectory, consumer confidence at a 54-year low, and wages sitting 6% below their 2011 peak, a recession may well hit in 90 days. In this episode of the Positive Property Show, George Markoski puts a 90-day timeframe on the risk, walks through the data behind it, and makes the case that the investors pulling back right now are reading the situation backwards.
The RBA has raised rates twice in 2026, and the full effect of those hikes has not yet worked through to consumer spending and business investment. Mortgage holders are absorbing the sharpest end of it. Layer fuel costs running well above pre-conflict levels, a fertiliser supply chain disrupted by the Strait of Hormuz closure, and inflation that rate hikes cannot structurally fix, and the household pressure building across Australia is significant.
The supply side of the equation is deteriorating at the same time. Net permanent and long-term arrivals into Australia totalled 494,540 in the 12 months to January 2026, the highest figure in recorded history. Half a million people arriving in a single year, every one of them entering the rental market before the buying market, with no supply response anywhere in the data to absorb them.
In the first 15 months of the National Housing Accord, 81,000 fewer homes were built than needed. Annual dwelling approvals are stalled at 196,500, well short of the 240,000 required each year.
Source: ABS / MacroBusiness, April 2026.
New dwelling production is forecast to fall a further 11% in 2026, contributing to a projected national shortfall of 380,000 homes over the next five years, a deficit of roughly 76,000 dwellings every year.
George traces the same pattern through four decades of economic shocks: from the 1983 oil crisis, Black Monday, the dot-com crash, the GFC, up to COVID. Each one produced a fear cycle, and each one was followed by a property recovery that exceeded the previous peak without exception.
This is not coincidental. The reason behind it is structural. A recession forces the government’s hand on rates as stimulus flows and borrowing capacity expands. Every 0.25% cut in the cash rate adds approximately $11,000 to the average borrower’s purchasing capacity, and markets are already pricing in cuts if Australia’s GDP contracts further.
Property investment during a recession in Australia has historically rewarded buyers who moved while others waited for certainty. Less competition, more negotiating room, and a housing shortage that does not ease regardless of sentiment. That combination has produced the strongest long-term returns of any entry point across the past four decades.
Positive Property member Daryl De Haas also joined live on the session to share his property investment success story. Since joining Positive Property, he has settled on three properties across Queensland and WA, purchased between 2023 and 2025, and have produced $646,000 in combined capital growth. Daryl came to property investing in his early 50s with no super, having been self-employed his entire working life. Now he has five properties, with a sixth underway in, and a retirement funded on his own terms.
For the full data presentation, state-by-state breakdown, and live Q&A, listen to this episode of the Positive Property Show.
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