March 31, 2026
Global oil prices up 57% in weeks. Consumer confidence at 73.4%. Real wages back to 2011 levels. If you are trying to make sense of the Australian property market right now, the headlines are not making it easy. In this episode of the Positive Property Show, George Markoski discusses what the current global crisis actually means for property investors, what four decades of data says happens next, and how the property investor playbook is shifting in response.
The Strait of Hormuz carries 20% of the world’s daily oil supply. It has been effectively shut down since the Middle East conflict escalated, and the numbers that followed were immediate. Crude oil moved from $70 to over $110 per barrel, a 57% surge, pushing Australian petrol prices up 40 cents per litre almost overnight.
For property investors, the downstream effects are crucial. National rents have already surged and inflation is proving stickier than the RBA had hoped well before this oil shock arrived.
The RBA response is the key variable. If the conflict drags on and tips global growth into recession, the historical Australian response is not higher rates. It is emergency cuts. And that changes everything for borrowing capacity.
Pull up the capital city housing growth chart for every major economic shock since 1983 and the pattern is uncomfortable for anyone sitting on the sidelines. From the 1983 oil crisis, Black Monday, the dot-com crash, the GFC, to COVID; Australian property powered through all of them and then some. After the GFC, some capitals gained 35%. After COVID, Brisbane alone went up over 100%.
Well-located Australian properties have delivered an average annual growth rate of around 7% over the past 30 years, a rate that compounds to a doubling of value roughly every 10 years. That track record has absorbed every crisis thrown at it without exception.
The mechanism behind it is straightforward. When Australia faces a serious economic shock, the government borrows heavily, prints money, and cuts rates to keep its own debt servicing costs manageable. Every 0.25% cut adds approximately $11,000 to the average borrower’s purchasing capacity. Rate cuts have preceded every major property boom in the past four decades. That cycle has not broken yet.
Brisbane dwelling values have risen 116% since March 2020, according to PropTrack, making it Australia’s second most expensive housing market behind Sydney, with listings down 22.9% year on year according to Cotality. (reference: Macrobusiness)
George called this move 12 years ago. Brisbane overtaking Melbourne as Australia’s second most expensive city was not a surprise to anyone who was tracking population flows and infrastructure spending at the time. The question now is whether the run still has legs at a median dwelling value above $1.1 million.
The supply side says yes. Queensland’s population is running 145,000 above trend, Brisbane’s vacancy rate has tightened to 0.8%, and annual rent growth of 6.7% matches Perth as the highest of any major capital. The 2032 Olympics infrastructure pipeline is real and still years from peak impact. Interstate migration into Queensland has not reversed. The fundamentals that drove the first 116% are largely still in place.
The government target is 240,000 new homes per year, but current dwelling approvals sit at 196,500 annually, already 27% below target, with completions running even further behind.
Australia faces a projected housing shortfall of around 262,000 over the next five years as population growth continues to outpace construction.
Source: State of the Housing System 2025
The construction workforce is not closing that gap anytime soon. Infrastructure Australia’s 2025 Market Capacity Report forecasts a total construction worker shortfall of 300,000 by mid-2027, including 126,000 tradespeople and labourers. More people arriving, fewer homes being built, a workforce that cannot keep up. The conditions required for a sustained Australian property market crash are not present in that equation.
The core of George’s property investment strategy for Australia in 2026 has not changed, though the emphasis has sharpened. Buy in locations where demand data is unambiguous. Buy brand new where possible to maximise depreciation benefits. Hold long enough for compounding to do its work.
Several decades of evidence confirm that a standard Australian house has tripled in value in each 20-year block since World War II. Investor lending is already reflecting this, with $39.8 billion flowing into the market as experienced buyers position themselves ahead of the next rate cycle turn.
Investing in property during a crisis is uncomfortable. It is supposed to be. The playbook has not changed. The opportunity the current conditions are creating is just harder to act on when the headlines are this loud.
For the full data breakdown and live Q&A from this session, listen to the complete episode of the Positive Property Show.
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